A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
